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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd