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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still